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***News & Notes***

Where are we on the rates rollercoaster?

Here is how some experts predict market conditions will affect the average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage in 2024:

• Freddie Mac. With the current stance of monetary policy holding steady, we expect mortgage rates to move sideways, remaining above 6.5% through this quarter and drifting down to about 6% by year’s end.
  Fannie Mae Housing Forecast. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage will average 6.3% in Q2 2024 and slowly decline over the year, landing at a Q4 average of 5.9%.

• National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun. “The budget deficit remains high, and the various inflation metrics remain above the comfort level. That means the mortgage rates will likely be in the 6% to 7% range for most of the year.”

• RSM U.S. real estate senior analyst Crystal Sunbury. “Assuming no significant economic shocks, mortgage rates are likely to continue slowly easing over the next few months, to reach a 6% to 6.5% range by spring of 2024.”

• Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). MBA’s baseline forecast is for mortgage rates to end 2024 at 6.1% and reach 5.5% at the end of 2025 as Treasury rates decline and  the spread narrows.

• Bank of America head of retail lending Matt Vernon. “The Fed’s likely decision to cut rates in 2024 would be a key factor that could breathe new life into the housing market. However, it’s important to note that significant drops in mortgage rates might not happen in the early months of 2024. If any reductions occur, they are likely to be gradual, possibly beginning in the latter part of the year.”

• Palisades Group chief investment officer and co-founder Jack Macdowell. “Our best guess is that mortgage rates will remain in the 7% to 7.25% range throughout Q1 2024.”

• Bright MLS chief economist Dr. Lisa Sturtevant. [D]uring the early part of the year, expect some bumpiness in rates as new economic data are released and as more buyers get back into the market. However, the overall outlook for mortgage rates in 2024 suggests more rate drops, with Bright MLS forecasts predicting rates to hit 6.2% by the fourth quarter.

• KPMG Economics senior economist Yelena Maleyev. “Mortgage rates are expected to stay below 7% in the coming months as inflationary pressures ease and the path to [Federal Reserve] rate cuts in the second quarter remains clear. Upside surprises to inflation, employment and wages in the coming months would make the Federal Reserve consider waiting even longer to cut rates, which would then push up other interest rates, including mortgages.”

  Excerpt from Forbes online Mar. 2024